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Trendgraphix Report for November 2019
The Sacramento Trendgraphix Report for November 2019 includes Sacramento County single-family homes. No other criteria are included so that we can get a broad understanding of what is happening. If you want to get updates for a specific area, even down to a ZIP code or multiple ZIP codes, or multi-family properties or land, sign up for Sacramento Home Sale Reports by ZIP Code.
The following blog was written entirely by our team member, Josh Amolsch. It is an excellent overview of the November market. This data is published a month behind to ensure all the information is available. We are so proud to have Josh as a member of our team. He works very hard to provide information to his buyers so they are educated about the hyper-local target market when they make offers. — JaCi Wallace
The number of single-family homes for sale (inventory) in Sacramento County fell 15.4% in November 2019, compared to the month prior and is down 37.5% from November 2018 according to the latest Sacramento Trendgraphix Report for November 2019. While it is a seasonal norm to have inventory and buying activity slow in the winter, pending transactions in November 2019 are up 17.9% from November 2018. That means that buyers are buying more than they were last year at this time. That doesn’t sound like a recession to me.
We have also seen Average Cumulative Days on the report drop to 33 days from 34 days in October 2019. This is telling as this number usually goes up during the winter months. Pendings are up, inventory is down and the average days on market is dropping. The new listings are way down, per the Sacramento Trendgraphix Report for November 2019.
This means higher prices for the foreseeable future, but not necessarily the top of the market you may hope for. People have been singing that tune for probably two years now. It’s not the top of the market just because one might feel like it is. There are many other factors that affect the housing market. Supply and demand are just about the biggest drivers in the market.
Sellers are also getting on average 98% of their asking price in November 2019, up 1% from October 2019. This doesn’t feel like a seasonal slow down to me! The buyers we represent end up owning a home because they understand the reality of the market. Buyers believe in a particular neighborhood, so this data proves useful to buyers when making a buying decision.
The median home price is holding steady at $385,000 for October and November. It is up 5.5% over November 2018. Interest rates are phenomenal and buyers are out in full force. We can just call it spring this December, as we are barely getting rain anyway.
If you want an edge in this extremely competitive market, call Wallace & Weintraub Realtors with RE/MAX Gold at 916-233-6759.
Low Inventory Backfires on the Sacramento Housing Market
With such low inventory in the Sacramento housing market this spring, buyers may face multiple offers.
Low inventory in the Sacramento housing market tends to generate multiple offers for the super desirable homes but there can be unintended consequences for sellers. Now, even homes that are not super desirable or maybe have some sort of drawback that makes potential home buyers pass it by are receiving more than one offer, as compared to the slower activity in the 4th quarter of 2015. But this year’s start on the Sacramento housing market is very different from last year’s. What is making the difference in the low inventory this year is the low number of comparable sales available for an appraisal.
Of course, this is dependent upon area and the individual micro markets but if an agent, for example, bases sales on the last 6 months, predicting an upward swing will carry the momentum, an appraiser will use only the last 3 months. That means a February appraisal will use comps from November, December and January. Our January inventory is 27% less than our inventory from January 2015, which was mind-blowing low to start with. Low inventory can drive higher prices as buyers outbid each other. However, not every home will appraise if the number of comps available in that neighborhood are very low.
You can already see this formula at work in the median sales price in our Sacramento Housing Market, which has now dropped to $282,000. It has basically held steady from last May, around $290,000, jumping to $296,000 in December, but our January median home price has plunged by 5%. Our pending sales are rising due to the low inventory but will those homes appraise at value? What happens when pending sales outnumber the homes for sale?
Sellers sometimes don’t realize that February sales will be based on Nov-Jan comparables, and if those numbers don’t add up, it doesn’t matter which way the market is moving or how much a buyer will pay if the home won’t appraise. You can’t go to Zillow, pluck random sales and hope an appraiser will use those same numbers because they are probably too old.
Now, more than ever, you need an experienced Sacramento Realtor to help you navigate the market and to determine an appropriate course of action for you. There is a profit for sellers in a Sacramento housing market with low inventory, but it is all dependent on marketing strategy, negotiation skills and the last 3 months of comparable sales. You probably won’t find a more experienced agent than Elizabeth Weintraub. Call today at 916.233.6759.
